I remember watching Powell speak after the Fed’s meeting in late September. I was doing some back of the envelope math while listening. If I remember correctly, based on his targets for end of 2022, it would be a 0.75 rate increase followed by 0.50 increase. Take that with a grain of salt as the Fed’s target may have changed or I may be remembering incorrectly.

While markets are concerned about when these rate hikes will slow, I think the issue for the “real economy” is how long these rates will stay elevated. Interest rates at 4% into 2024-2025 would be a shock to how businesses operated the last decade plus.